Bitcoin Marketcap

$781B

Gold Marketcap

$11.03T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$10.38B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$41,576  πŸ“ˆ

+$1,743

+4.38%


S&P 500

4,396  πŸ“‰

-2.8

-0.06%


Gold

$1,815  πŸ“‰

-$12.23

-0.67%


Silver

$25.49  πŸ“‰

-$0.01

-0.05%


Euro

$1.1867  πŸ“‰

-$0

-0.11%


Yen

Β₯109.69  πŸ“ˆ

+Β₯0.12

+0.11%


Renminbi (CNY)

Β₯6.4615   

-Β₯0

-0.01%


Oil (WTI)

$73.65  πŸ“ˆ

+$0.73

+1.00%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$781B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.38%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$10.38B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$8.04B


Active Addresses

841,162


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$38.0M


GBTC Premium

-6.72%


MSTR Premium

39.08%


BTC Down From ATH

35.78%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

42.01%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.06%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+20.00%


UST 2yr

0.20%  πŸ“ˆ

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.26%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.80%


UST 30yr

1.90%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.53%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  πŸ“ˆ

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40%  πŸ“‰

-0.03

-1.23%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.17%  πŸ“ˆ

-0.01

-0.86%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.14x   

-0.72

-4.83%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

26.13x   

-1.12

-4.12%


BTC:Oil (price)

564.81x   

+18.49

+3.38%


Gold:Oil (price)

24.64x   

-0.41

-1.65%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  πŸ“ˆ

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  πŸ“ˆ

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  πŸ“ˆ

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+270%

-8%

+34%

2 year:

+297%

+24%

+48%

3 year:

+443%

+48%

+56%

4 year:

+1,432%

+42%

+77%

5 year:

+6,663%

+34%

+102%

6 year:

+14,703%

+66%

+109%

7 year:

+6,985%

+41%

+127%

8 year:

+43,384%

+39%

+157%

9 year:

+385,131%

+14%

+219%

10 year:

+414,888%

+9%

+250%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

73

1.59%

$41,576

101

2.20%

$40,000

108

2.35%

$30,000

209

4.55%

$20,000

227

4.94%

$10,000

532

11.59%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

WHY BITCOIN, WHY NOW?

Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset with an unchangeable monetary policy. Its rate of inflation is currently under 2% and decreasing, ultimately to zero. Only 21million BTC will ever exist, with ~18.6million in existence today. It is fundamentally independent of the fiat money system, yet is a liquid, globally tradeable asset. BTC is convertible to over 150 national currencies 24/7, and can be self-stored or custodied with 3rd parties, including with qualified custodians. Bitcoin can be traded on venues ranging from peer-to-peer services, to large regulated US institutional brokerages and exchanges.

Bitcoin vs Select Indexes & Assets

Bitcoin's ROI performance, as well as risk-adjusted return, has outperformed most benchmarks over most time-frames.

 

Marketcap

Price

Volume
24hr

Inflation
Next 1yr

Inflation
Next 10yrs

ROI
1yr

CAGR
10yr

Volatility
1yr

Sharpe
1yr

Sharpe
5yr


Bitcoin

$781B

$41,617

$8.04B

1.79%

10.34%

269.96%

130.04%

0.53

2.74

1.76


Gold

$11.03T

$1,815

~$4.54B

1.52%

15.18%

-8.38%

0.88%

0.11

-0.61

0.50


S&P 500

~$37.06T

$4,396

--

--

--

33.57%

13.34%

0.13

2.41

1.01


NASDAQ

~$20.38T

$14,668

--

--

--

34.87%

18.51%

0.18

2.01

1.26


USTs (TLT)

--

$149.48

--

--

--

-11.86%

3.93%

0.10

-1.25

0.06


https://casebitcoin.com

BITCOIN & MACRO NEWS

Paul Tudor Jones Targets 5% Allocation to BTC

In a CNBC interview this morning, Paul Tudor Jones emphasized that he likes BTC due its certainty, stating:

I like bitcoin. Right? Bitcoin is math. And math has been around for thousands of years. And two plus two is gonna equal four and it will for the next 2000 years. So I like idea of investing in something that's reliable, consistent, honest, and 100% certain. So bitcoin has appeal to me because it's a way for me to invest in certainty.

story image


He went on to contrast bitcoin's certainty with the Federal Reserve, and US politics:

I look at the difference between the Fed at 2013, the Fed at 2021. How can this...do I want to have to faith necessarily....I look at the difference between Trump and Biden...do I want to have faith in that same reliability of human nature?

Finally, Mr Jones suggested a 5% bitcoin position as one of the few holdings he has sufficient conviction in given uncertainty surrounding Fed policy:

I like bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier... The only thing that I know for certain is that I want to have 5% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, 5% in cash, 5% in commodities, at this point in time. I don't know what I want to do with the other 80%. I want to wait and see what the Fed's gonna do, because what they do will have a big impact.

tldr

  • Paul Tudor was one of the first big-name investors following the March 2020 covid crash to publicly embrace bitcoin, and position it as an important macro asset.
  • Bitcoin is known to be price-volatile, yet Mr Jones correctly highlights Bitcoin's monetary policy certainty
  • Mr Jones is clearly still thinking of bitcoin as a key macro asset given both central bank and political uncertainty, and his emphasis may carry weight with other investors
  • If anything, his conviction appears to have risen since first diligencing bitcoin last year, now citing BTC as one of just 4 positions he has sufficient conviction to hold in the current macro environment.

LEARN ABOUT BITCOIN

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

Common Critique #2
The Government Will Shut Bitcoin Down

Critique:  Governments won't simply allow a non-state money to keep growing. Control over money is too central to a government's survival for them to allow this.

Rebuttal:  Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it impossible for anyone, even governments, to fully kill it. Given that it will always exist, the dynamic becomes one of "jurisdictional arbitrage,"; i.e., if one... more

WHAT MONEY MANAGERS ARE SAYING

christopher-wood

Christopher Wood
Global Head of Equity Strategy, Jefferies Group

β€œThe 50 per cent weight in physical gold bullion in the portfolio will be reduced for the first time in several years by five percentage points with the money invested in Bitcoin. If there is a big drawdown in bitcoin from the current level, after the historic breakout above the $20,000 level, the intention will be to add to this position....” more

ray-dalio

Ray Dalio
Founder, Co-CIO, Bridgewater Associates

β€œSo [bitcoin] could serve as a diversifier to gold and other such storehold of wealth assets. The main thing is to have some of these type of assets (with limited supply, that are mobile, and that are storeholds of wealth)...” more

BITCOIN LIBRARY

THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

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