Bitcoin Marketcap

$742B

Gold Marketcap

$11.01T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$39,425  📈

+$939.80

+2.44%


S&P 500

4,402  📉

-9.31

-0.21%


Gold

$1,811  📈

+$0.18

+0.01%


Silver

$25.44  📉

-$0.08

-0.3%


Euro

$1.1836  📉

-$0

-0.26%


Yen

¥109.57  📈

+¥0.50

+0.46%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4663   

-¥0

-0.06%


Oil (WTI)

$68.70  📉

-$1.91

-2.7%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$742B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.40%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$6.01B


Active Addresses

820,918


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$36.2M


GBTC Premium

-6.63%


MSTR Premium

48.07%


BTC Down From ATH

38.88%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

35.11%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  📉

-0.01

-16.67%


UST 2yr

0.17%  📉

-0.02

-10.53%


UST 10yr

1.20%  📉

-0.04

-3.23%


UST 30yr

1.86%  📉

-0.03

-1.59%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  📈

+0.03

+42.86%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.38%  📈

+0.01

+0.42%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.13%  📈

-0.01

-0.89%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.86x   

-0.39

-2.55%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

27.49x   

-0.78

-2.75%


BTC:Oil (price)

574.43x   

+30.20

+5.55%


Gold:Oil (price)

26.35x   

+0.71

+2.76%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  📈

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  📈

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  📈

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+251%

-11%

+33%

2 year:

+247%

+22%

+53%

3 year:

+466%

+48%

+55%

4 year:

+1,189%

+43%

+78%

5 year:

+6,756%

+35%

+102%

6 year:

+14,106%

+66%

+110%

7 year:

+6,675%

+38%

+129%

8 year:

+40,344%

+41%

+159%

9 year:

+364,368%

+12%

+215%

10 year:

+528,714%

+10%

+267%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$40,000

109

2.37%

$39,424

112

2.44%

$30,000

213

4.64%

$20,000

231

5.03%

$10,000

536

11.66%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Druckenmiller Sees End to USD Reserve Status, 'Crypto' as Solution


 

Legendary macro investor, Stanley Druckenmiller, followed up a WSJ opinion piece titled "The Fed is Playing with Fire" with a CNBC interview in which he lays out the ramifications for the dollar given the Fed's QE persistence. He said that the dollar is "more likely than not" to lose its reserve currency status in the next 15 years, and calls out "crypto" as the replacement (note that Druckenmiller holds bitcoin)


Regarding "crypto", he said:

5 or 6 years ago, I said that crypto was a solution in search of a problem. And that's why I didn't play crypto the first wave. We already had the dollar, what did we need crypto for? Well the problem has been clearly identified. It's Jerome Powell and the rest of the world's central bankers. There's a lack of trust. So sort of groping for an answer, for a central case, a best guess; and it's hard to make a forecast 3 months from now, much less 15 years from now, I think the most likely replacement would be some kind of ledger system invented by some kids from MIT or Stanford or some other engineering school, that hasn't even happened yet, that can replace the dollar world wide. I don't know what that will be. I just know that if the Fed is forced to monetize the debt...

Druckenmiller went on to describe the Fed's current ongoing policy as 'radical':

[This is] certainly the most radical policy by a longshot that I've ever seen relative to the economic circumstances. ... I can't find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances. Not one.

And further, Druckenmiller outlined how the Fed is monetizing Congress' spending, how flows (specifically foreigners selling USTs) are putting pressure on bonds, and how the Fed is being forced to monetize the debt, which he thinks will trigger loss of USD as global reserve within the next 15 years:

You said that to some extent the Fed is enabling the fiscal transfers. It's not to some extent, they couldn't be doing this without the Fed. The Fed is monetizing their activity. I mentioned all the QE after vaccine confirmation and retail sales...we've had 850B of direct transfers. 575B of them came *after* retail sales were above trend. ... I'm old enough to remember the bond market vigilantes; I used to be one of them. Without the Fed buying I don't know what the exact number, I think it's 60% of all the debt issued, the bond markets would be totally rejecting this. So they are enabling this massive expansion in fiscal policy, and the problem is, if you end up getting inflation, and frankly, even if you don't, the debt is gonna be so big...we just put $6T of new debt on. Again, all enabled by the Fed. These guys could not be doing it, bond rates would go to a prohibitive level. My issue here is, in the future, as we go forward... They're [the CBO] saying, if 10-years [USTs] go to 4.9%, which is their normalized projection, the interest expense alone will be 30% of GDP every year. That's basically what we just spent on the covid emergency in the last year. There is no way we can afford to have 30% of all government outlays be towards interest expense, so what will happen is that the Fed will have to monetize that. When they monetize it, I believe it'll have horrible implications of the dollar. And that's why I said in that speech, yes, that I think it's more likely than not within 15yrs we lose reserve currency status...

tldr

  • While Druckenmiller did not say that bitcoin specifically may fill the role of global reserve in the future, it's not a huge leap to figure that he may own it "just in case", given his view that a crypto-asset will be the ultimate solution.
  • Druckenmiller is a known gold-bug, and also a known bitcoin holder, having stated "frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet probably works better"
  • The case he outlines in this interview is a very clear articulation of the long-term macro backdrop under which bitcoin could thrive.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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