Bitcoin Marketcap

$773B

Gold Marketcap

$11.03T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$10.38B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$41,209  📈

+$2,251

+5.78%


S&P 500

4,396  📉

-2.8

-0.06%


Gold

$1,814  📈

+$0.44

+0.02%


Silver

$25.48  📈

+$0.03

+0.10%


Euro

$1.1867  📈

+$0.00

+0.06%


Yen

¥109.69  📉

-¥0.11

-0.1%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4615   

+¥0.00

0.00%


Oil (WTI)

$73.81  📉

-$0.29

-0.39%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$773B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.38%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$10.38B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$6.76B


Active Addresses

841,162


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$37.7M


GBTC Premium

-6.72%


MSTR Premium

39.08%


BTC Down From ATH

36.22%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

40.77%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.06%  📈

+0.01

+20.00%


UST 2yr

0.20%  📈

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.26%  📈

+0.01

+0.80%


UST 30yr

1.90%  📈

+0.01

+0.53%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  📈

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40%  📉

-0.03

-1.23%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.17%  📈

-0.01

-0.86%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.27x   

-0.81

-5.39%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

26.37x   

-1.48

-5.31%


BTC:Oil (price)

558.01x   

+32.49

+6.18%


Gold:Oil (price)

24.59x   

+0.11

+0.47%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  📈

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  📈

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  📈

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+267%

-8%

+34%

2 year:

+293%

+24%

+48%

3 year:

+438%

+48%

+56%

4 year:

+1,417%

+42%

+77%

5 year:

+6,608%

+33%

+102%

6 year:

+14,559%

+66%

+109%

7 year:

+6,916%

+41%

+127%

8 year:

+42,961%

+39%

+157%

9 year:

+381,385%

+14%

+219%

10 year:

+411,488%

+9%

+250%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

73

1.59%

$41,186

101

2.20%

$40,000

108

2.35%

$30,000

209

4.55%

$20,000

227

4.94%

$10,000

532

11.59%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Weekend Price Drop - Leverage and Misinformation


 

On Saturday night, the price of bitcoin (on Coinbase) dropped from over $60,000 at 8pm EDT to a brief low of $51,300 less than 3hrs later. Price has since recovered to ~$56,300 as of this Monday morning. So what happened?


Traders were using excessive leverage to go long. Funding rates for borrowing on Binance and other exchanges were in excess of 100% annualized. This is nothing new (rates were as high or higher near the Jan 8th $42k peak, as well as the February $58k peak), but it set the stage for a leverage cascade should something trigger even a moderate sell off. As it turns out, there were 3 triggers. All of them containing substantial degrees of misinformation, but with so many traders on margin, time to get at the truth was minimal.

story image

Trigger #1: misinterpreted insider sales of Coinbase equity ($COIN).
There was a table circulating on twitter showing how much $COIN various C-level execs at Coinbase sold. The table misinterpreted how much equity each person actually owned, presumably by looking only at fully vested shares (ie, not accounting for additional options grants and unexecuted options), and therefore concluded that executives sold the majority of their shares, which people interpreted as bearish for the industry. Frank Chaparro at The Block cleared this up, finding that execs sold a far smaller portion of their shares:

story image

Trigger #2: questionable 'news' about the Treasury Dept charging cryptocurrency businesses.
At 10:42pm on Saturday, a twitter account with a significant following tweeted: "U.S. TREASURY TO CHARGE SEVERAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FOR MONEY LAUNDERING USING CRYPTOCURRENCIES -SOURCES", with no further information available anywhere. Apparently some traders took this as reliable news; the majority of the downward price action took place minutes after this tweet. A couple hours later, Jake Chervinsky, General Counsel at Compound Finance, noted that this 'news' did not seem credible:

story image

Trigger #3: Small-Sample Hashrate Data.
There have been power outages in Xinjiang Provence, China, the past few days, where a non-trivial portion of the bitcoin network's hashpower is located. Naturually, this caused a drop in hashrate, but measuring exactly how much is difficult due to the fact that bitcoin mining is a statistical process; thus hashrate data & charts are necessarily estimates. Data from CoinMetrics.io shows that these estimates fell from a high of 198 Exahash/s on April 15th, to 106 Exahash/s on Saturday (April 17th), a roughly 46% drop. But the estimate for yesterday (April 18th) has rebounded to 145 Exahash/s. It's reasonable to expect a significant change in hashrate due to the power outage (& we see significant variation when miners move equipment in China just due to seasonality), but it's unreasonable to assess these numbers on a 24hr basis due to the inherant statistical variance. Smoothed data over a week or so are far more representative. Nic Carter summed it up best:

story image

tldr

  • The bitcoin market is no stranger to volatility driven by questionable 'news', and when traders' use of leverage gets high, it's often just a matter of time before something spooks the market and triggers a margin cascade.
  • The net result of this weekend's 'news' flow and subsequent deleveraging cascade was ~$10B in liquidations across various crypto-exchanges in a 24hr period, by far the most ever.
  • Price has currently recovered about half of the losses from the low, and leverage-use has been almost completely reset to near 0.
  • Traders and other market participants would do well to understand the fundamentals of bitcoin better, in order to avoid responding irrationally to headlines.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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