Bitcoin Marketcap

$738B

Gold Marketcap

$11.01T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$39,310  πŸ“ˆ

+$1,179

+3.09%


S&P 500

4,405  πŸ“‰

-6.01

-0.14%


Gold

$1,810  πŸ“‰

-$1.32

-0.07%


Silver

$25.48  πŸ“ˆ

+$0.02

+0.09%


Euro

$1.1843  πŸ“‰

-$0

-0.2%


Yen

Β₯109.55  πŸ“ˆ

+Β₯0.59

+0.54%


Renminbi (CNY)

Β₯6.4651   

-Β₯0.01

-0.08%


Oil (WTI)

$69.38  πŸ“‰

-$0.77

-1.1%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$738B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.40%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$5.54B


Active Addresses

820,918


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$35.8M


GBTC Premium

-6.63%


MSTR Premium

47.52%


BTC Down From ATH

39.38%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

33.87%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  πŸ“‰

-0.01

-16.67%


UST 2yr

0.19%  πŸ“‰

-0.01

-5%


UST 10yr

1.24%  πŸ“‰

-0.04

-3.13%


UST 30yr

1.89%  πŸ“‰

-0.02

-1.05%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.03

+42.86%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.38%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.42%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.13%  πŸ“ˆ

-0.01

-0.89%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.91x   

-0.47

-3.08%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

27.65x   

-0.78

-2.74%


BTC:Oil (price)

566.50x   

+22.07

+4.05%


Gold:Oil (price)

26.09x   

+0.28

+1.07%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  πŸ“ˆ

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  πŸ“ˆ

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  πŸ“ˆ

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+249%

-11%

+34%

2 year:

+242%

+22%

+53%

3 year:

+459%

+48%

+55%

4 year:

+1,173%

+43%

+78%

5 year:

+6,677%

+36%

+102%

6 year:

+13,918%

+66%

+111%

7 year:

+6,585%

+38%

+130%

8 year:

+39,811%

+41%

+159%

9 year:

+359,564%

+12%

+215%

10 year:

+522,515%

+10%

+267%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$40,000

109

2.37%

$39,309

112

2.44%

$30,000

213

4.64%

$20,000

231

5.03%

$10,000

536

11.66%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

THE BITCOIN LIBRARY

5 May 2020 | Lyn Alden | Price when published: $8,952 (ROI since: +339%)

Quantitative Easing, MMT, and Inflation-Deflation, A Primer

Filed under: topic icon macro  medium icon articles

Lyn explains broad macro concepts such as QE, MMT, and the inflation/deflation debate, what happened in the 2010s, and looks ahead to the 2020s. She makes the case that the disinflation regime which has dominated the US since 1980 may very well be over, and shifting to a fundamentally inflationary environment. Bitcoin isn't mentioned in this piece, but the dynamics presented here are key to understanding Bitcoin's macro prospects for the next decade.

Topics include:
- Domestic Government Borrowing
- International Government Borrowing
- Quantitative Easing β€œQE”
- Modern Monetary Theory β€œMMT”
- The Inflation/Deflation Debate
- Why So Little Inflation In the 2010’s?
- Modeling Inflation in the 2020’s
- A Baseline Debt and Inflation Outlook
- The Years Ahead

EXCERPT

These are trends I’ll be monitoring in the quarters and years ahead. Outside of food, healthcare, and other essentials which have inflationary catalysts at the moment, the trend is likely to be disinflationary for many discretionary goods and services until a large amount of helicopter-like money ends up on Main Street in the form of more checks, negative payroll taxes, considerably extended unemployment benefits, or other stimulus policies. And the probability of those types of policies occurring over the next few years is likely higher than many people think due to how few assets the bottom 50% of the population has and how reliant they are on active income streams.

At that point, the possibility for broadly higher consumer price inflation is on the table and the four-decade period of disinflation from the 1980’s to the 2020’s will have ended.


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