Bitcoin Marketcap

$741B

Gold Marketcap

$11.01T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$39,460  📈

+$1,272

+3.33%


S&P 500

4,399  📉

-11.82

-0.27%


Gold

$1,810  📈

+$1.95

+0.11%


Silver

$25.41  📉

-$0.11

-0.42%


Euro

$1.1836  📉

-$0

-0.21%


Yen

¥109.57  📈

+¥0.50

+0.46%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4662   

-¥0

-0.06%


Oil (WTI)

$69.04  📉

-$1.7

-2.4%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$741B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.40%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$8.73B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$5.89B


Active Addresses

820,918


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$36.1M


GBTC Premium

-6.63%


MSTR Premium

47.84%


BTC Down From ATH

38.99%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

34.82%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  📉

-0.01

-16.67%


UST 2yr

0.17%  📉

-0.02

-10.53%


UST 10yr

1.20%  📉

-0.04

-3.23%


UST 30yr

1.86%  📉

-0.03

-1.59%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  📈

+0.03

+42.86%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.38%  📈

+0.01

+0.42%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.13%  📈

-0.01

-0.89%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.85x   

-0.47

-3.06%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

27.53x   

-0.88

-3.11%


BTC:Oil (price)

571.25x   

+30.93

+5.72%


Gold:Oil (price)

26.23x   

+0.67

+2.60%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  📈

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  📈

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  📈

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+251%

-11%

+33%

2 year:

+245%

+22%

+53%

3 year:

+463%

+48%

+55%

4 year:

+1,183%

+42%

+78%

5 year:

+6,756%

+35%

+102%

6 year:

+14,013%

+66%

+110%

7 year:

+6,631%

+38%

+129%

8 year:

+40,081%

+41%

+158%

9 year:

+361,997%

+12%

+214%

10 year:

+528,714%

+10%

+267%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$40,000

109

2.37%

$39,459

111

2.42%

$30,000

213

4.64%

$20,000

231

5.03%

$10,000

536

11.66%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Howard Marks Warms (Somewhat) to Bitcoin


 

Well known investor Howard Marks' latest investor letter indicates that he is at least somewhat warming up to bitcoin as a viable investment. In the past (2017, with BTC ~$2500), he has dismissed bitcoin as "not real", but his position now seems firmly neutral:

Thus, I've concluded (with Andrew's help) that I'm not yet informed enough to form a firm view on cryptocurrencies. In the spirit of open-mindedness, I'm striving to learn. Until I do, I'll be referring all requests for comments on the subject to Andrew (although I'm sure he'll decline).


The "Andrew" Howard refers to is his son, who is apparently much more on board with Bitcoin as a viable investment. Howard noted:

Back in 2017, my memo There They Go Again...Again included a section on cryptocurrencies in which I expressed a high level of skepticism. This view has been a source of much discussion for me and Andrew, who is quite positive on Bitcoin and several others and thankfully owns a meaningful amount for our family.

tldr

  • Howard Marks' letters are widely read and respected in the investment world.
  • His relative warming to bitcoin follows many other traditional-markets investors and funds who have publicly come around to bitcoin in recent months
  • The difference of view between Howard and his son is perhaps another example of the generational divide often seen regarding opinions on bitcoin.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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